Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research · Monthly · Importance

1.2% (Oct-26) ABS · % · Monthly · CSV

Period	%
Oct 2026	1.2%
Aug 2026	4.9%
Jul 2026	4.7%
Jun 2026	5.5%
May 2026	5.6%
Mar 2026	5.2%
Feb 2026	5.0%
Jan 2026	4.6%

Period	pp
Oct 2026	-3.7

Period	pp
Oct 2026	-3.6

About this indicator

Source

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne

Frequency

Monthly

Release

Released on a Thursday of the month after the reference period (usually the second or third; the Melbourne Institute sets and announces the exact date in advance), at 11:00 AEST/AEDT.

What it is

Measures the rate of inflation Australian consumers expect over the next 12 months, based on the monthly telephone survey of around 1,200 households conducted by the Melbourne Institute.

How it's calculated

Monthly telephone survey of ~1,200 households asking whether and by how much prices will change over the next 12 months. The headline figure is the 30-per-cent trimmed mean, which excludes the top and bottom 10% of responses before averaging.

Market implications

Rising inflation expectations can foreshadow future wage and price pressure and are watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia as a price-stability risk signal, often supporting a hawkish stance on the cash rate.

Limitations

A perception-based measure, not actual inflation; can be skewed by highly visible prices (fuel, food) rather than the full CPI basket. Sample size is relatively small and the full detailed report is subscription-only; only the headline trimmed-mean figure is public.