Economic Climate Indicator in Portugal

Statistics Portugal · Monthly · Importance

2.9 (Aug-26) ABS · points · Monthly · CSV

Period	points
Aug 2026	2.9
Jul 2026	2.8
Jun 2026	2.8
May 2026	2.7
Apr 2026	2.7
Mar 2026	2.7
Feb 2026	2.9
Jan 2026	3.0
Dec 2025	3.0
Nov 2025	2.9
Oct 2025	2.9
Sep 2025	2.9
Aug 2025	2.9
Jul 2025	2.9
Jun 2025	2.7
May 2025	2.5
Apr 2025	2.4
Mar 2025	2.6
Feb 2025	2.7
Jan 2025	2.8
Dec 2024	2.7
Nov 2024	2.5
Oct 2024	2.2
Sep 2024	1.9
Aug 2024	1.9
Jul 2024	2.0
Jun 2024	2.1
May 2024	2.1
Apr 2024	2.1
Mar 2024	2.1
Feb 2024	1.9
Jan 2024	1.7
Dec 2023	1.4
Nov 2023	1.3
Oct 2023	1.5
Sep 2023	1.8
Aug 2023	2.1
Jul 2023	2.1
Jun 2023	2.4
May 2023	2.5
Apr 2023	2.6
Mar 2023	2.3
Feb 2023	2.0
Jan 2023	1.8
Dec 2022	1.7
Nov 2022	1.9
Oct 2022	2.1
Sep 2022	2.4
Aug 2022	2.5
Jul 2022	2.5
Jun 2022	2.6
May 2022	2.6
Apr 2022	2.8
Mar 2022	2.7
Feb 2022	2.8
Jan 2022	2.6
Dec 2021	2.8
Nov 2021	2.7
Oct 2021	2.7
Sep 2021	2.5

Period	points
Dec 1999	0.1
Nov 1999	0.2
Oct 1999	0.1
Sep 1999	0.1
Aug 1999	0.1
Jul 1999	0.3
Jun 1999	-0.2
May 1999	0.0
Apr 1999	0.0
Mar 1999	0.0
Feb 1999	-0.1
Jan 1999	-0.1
Dec 1998	-0.2
Nov 1998	-0.1
Oct 1998	-0.3
Sep 1998	-0.1
Aug 1998	-0.2
Jul 1998	-0.3
Jun 1998	-0.2
May 1998	0.0
Apr 1998	0.3
Mar 1998	0.1
Feb 1998	0.1
Jan 1998	-0.1
Dec 1997	0.1
Nov 1997	0.2
Oct 1997	0.0
Sep 1997	-0.1
Aug 1997	-0.3
Jul 1997	-0.1
Jun 1997	0.2
May 1997	0.3
Apr 1997	0.1
Mar 1997	0.3
Feb 1997	0.1
Jan 1997	0.2
Dec 1996	0.3
Nov 1996	0.1
Oct 1996	0.3
Sep 1996	0.0
Aug 1996	0.3
Jul 1996	0.4
Jun 1996	0.2
May 1996	0.0
Apr 1996	0.2
Mar 1996	0.0
Feb 1996	-0.1
Jan 1996	-0.4
Dec 1995	-0.2
Nov 1995	0.0
Oct 1995	-0.2
Sep 1995	-0.1
Aug 1995	-0.1
Jul 1995	0.0
Jun 1995	0.0
May 1995	0.0
Apr 1995	-0.1
Mar 1995	0.1
Feb 1995	-0.1
Jan 1995	-0.2

Period	points
Dec 1999	0.5
Nov 1999	0.2
Oct 1999	-0.1
Sep 1999	-0.5
Aug 1999	-0.7
Jul 1999	-1.0
Jun 1999	-1.6
May 1999	-1.6
Apr 1999	-1.6
Mar 1999	-1.3
Feb 1999	-1.2
Jan 1999	-1.0
Dec 1998	-1.0
Nov 1998	-0.7
Oct 1998	-0.4
Sep 1998	-0.1
Aug 1998	-0.1
Jul 1998	-0.2
Jun 1998	0.0
May 1998	0.4
Apr 1998	0.7
Mar 1998	0.5
Feb 1998	0.7
Jan 1998	0.7
Dec 1997	1.0
Nov 1997	1.2
Oct 1997	1.1
Sep 1997	1.4
Aug 1997	1.5
Jul 1997	2.1
Jun 1997	2.6
May 1997	2.6
Apr 1997	2.3
Mar 1997	2.4
Feb 1997	2.1
Jan 1997	1.9
Dec 1996	1.3
Nov 1996	0.8
Oct 1996	0.7
Sep 1996	0.2
Aug 1996	0.1
Jul 1996	-0.3
Jun 1996	-0.7
May 1996	-0.9
Apr 1996	-0.9
Mar 1996	-1.2
Feb 1996	-1.1
Jan 1996	-1.1
Dec 1995	-0.9
Nov 1995	-0.8
Oct 1995	-0.8
Sep 1995	-0.4
Aug 1995	-0.2
Jul 1995	0.1
Jun 1995	0.3
May 1995	1.0
Apr 1995	1.6
Mar 1995	2.9
Feb 1995	3.2
Jan 1995	3.7

About this indicator

Source

Statistics Portugal (INE)

Frequency

Monthly

Release

Last working day of the current month, together with the confianza of the consumidor.

What it is

The Economic Climate Indicator condenses into a single index the business confidence of the four sectors surveyed by Portugal's INE (manufacturing, trade, construction and public works, and services). Unlike a simple average, it is estimated by factor analysis and calibrated against GDP growth.

How it's calculated

INE combines the extreme-response balances of the four sectoral business surveys through factor analysis; the resulting series is smoothed with a three-month moving average (seasonally adjusted) and calibrated against real GDP growth in volume terms.

Market implications

It is INE's benchmark leading indicator for the Portuguese business cycle: sustained rises point to accelerating GDP, while sustained falls tend to precede slowdowns.

Limitations

Because it is calibrated against GDP and smoothed with a three-month moving average, it responds with a lag to one-off shocks in a single sector or a single month.